OCEAN ENGINEERING, cilt.342, sa.3, ss.1-12, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
Ensuring operational safety is of critical importance for the protection of human life in the maritime industry.
One of the most crucial links in this safety chain is the proper execution of periodic maintenance and inspection
of emergency equipment, such as life rafts. This study presents a hybrid methodology to assess Human Error
Probabilities (HEPs) in life raft inspection and maintenance operations on board ships. The traditional Success
Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) is integrated with improved Z-numbers to more effectively model the uncertainties
and subjectivity inherent in expert judgments. Through Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA), the life raft
maintenance process was decomposed into fifteen sub-tasks, and Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) were
identified for these tasks. HEP values for each sub-task were calculated based on the evaluations of a panel of
nine maritime experts. The analysis results indicate that tasks such as “Log and close-out inspection in maintenance
system” (HEP: 1.85E-02) and “Review service expiry dates and PSC remarks” (HEP: 8.21E-03) have the
highest error probabilities. The findings of this study identify the weakest links in life raft maintenance operations,
providing a concrete basis for measures in training, procedural improvements, and supervision. This
methodology represents a significant step towards enhancing ship operational safety by enabling a more precise
management of human-related risks in the maritime domain.