Risk Assessment of Solid Bulk Cargo Liquefaction Consequences in Maritime Transportation under a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Approach

Aydın M.

Journal of Transportation and Logistics, vol.8, no.1, pp.36-47, 2023 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)


Solid bulk cargo liquefaction is hazardous for bulk carrier ships as they reduce the stability of the ship. Most dry bulk ship

owners face solid bulk cargo liquefaction during the carriage of ore cargoes. The consequences of cargo liquefaction could have

catastrophic effects such as the ship sinking or capsizing. To improve the process of safety during the shipment of bulk cargo and

reduce potential consequences, a detailed risk analysis is needed. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a systematic probabilistic

risk analysis of the liquefaction of solid bulk cargo in the marine sector in order to allay this concern in order to deal with complex

causation and uncertainty resulting from complex interdependence among risk factors, limited data, and a complex environment.

A Bayesian network (BN) method under fuzzy logic has been utilized in the research. Whilst the BN enables us to calculate the

conditional probability of each basic event in the graph, the fuzzy logic tackles uncertainty and the vagueness of expert judgment.

The findings of the paper will assist solid bulk cargo owners and shippers in reducing the risk of solid bulk cargo liquefaction

during maritime transportation.