Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Polar Science, cilt.47, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
The increase in maritime traffic in Arctic waters is a consequence of global warming, reducing the distance vessels must navigate compared to traditional routes. However, unlike conventional maritime routes, Arctic waters pose substantial risks to vessel navigation, including ice conditions, dense fog, strong winds, rapidly changing weather conditions, and inadequate navigation and communication aids. It is vital to assess potential man-made hazards to prevent these risks from escalating into accidents that may result in material and human casualties. In this context, human error probabilities in operational tasks on board for navigation safety in Arctic waters were calculated by integrating the Delphi-Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique into the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART), one of the human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. As a result of the study, the average human error probability (HEP) value for all operations on board, related to navigation safety in Arctic waters, was found to be 4.93E-01. Tasks that demand experience and training were observed to have a higher likelihood of error.