TEMPORAL CHANGES AND OPERATIONAL RISK FACTORS IN MARITIME CONTAINER LOSS EVENTS
X International Scientific Conference “SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEM AND MARITIME LOGISTICS”, Batumi, Gürcistan, 24 Haziran 2026, ss.102-117, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
- Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
- Basıldığı Şehir: Batumi
- Basıldığı Ülke: Gürcistan
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.102-117
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Container shipping, the lifeblood of global trade, has become a fundamental pillar of
the world economy, supporting more than 80% of it, and has seen a massive 1500% increase
in capacity over the last fifty years. However, this industrial growth has also introduced new
safety risks, including pushing ship design limits, increasing operational complexity, and diversifying
environmental exposures. One of the most concrete and devastating consequences
of these risks for the marine ecosystem is "container loss at sea," which jeopardizes navigational
safety and creates sources of permanent pollution on the seabed and surface that
can last for decades. This study aims to analyze the temporal variations of container loss
events at sea and the underlying operational risk factors from a longitudinal perspective
with academic rigor. The research's methodological framework is based on statistical tools
that are widely used and highly reliable in the maritime safety literature. In the analysis of
time series data, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test statistic, which does not assume normality
and is robust to outliers, was used. The significance levels obtained using this method,
supported by the non-parametric Sen's slope estimator, quantitatively reveal the magnitude
and direction of the observed annual changes. This integrated methodological approach
provides scientific evidence that container losses are not merely a series of isolated accidents
but exhibit statistically significant trends directly related to global trade dynamics and
evolving ship technologies. The study finds that container loss incidents have exhibited a
characteristic change, particularly over the last ten years, in parallel with the increase in ship
sizes. While traditional risk factors such as severe weather conditions and storm exposure
remain critically important, the most dramatic increase has been concentrated in structural
risks arising from the proliferation of Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS). The increase in ship
sizes and record-high deck stacking heights has made modern ships more vulnerable to dynamic
natural phenomena such as "parametric resonance" and "synchronous rolling," which
can disrupt ship stability within seconds. In addition to these technical risks, this study thoroughly
examines the decisive impact of operational weaknesses, such as misdeclaration of
cargo, material fatigue of lashing equipment, and deck fires, on the total volume of losses.
Aimed at filling existing gaps in the literature, this research not only provides a retrospective overview of past data but also offers strategic insights for international maritime policies.
In particular, in light of the mandatory reporting regimes implemented by the IMO (International
Maritime Organization) at the beginning of 2026 and the current revisions to SOLAS
(International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea) standards, it identifies areas where
current inspection and enforcement mechanisms lag behind technological advancements.
The analyses strongly emphasize that static risk assessment methods are no longer sufficient;
instead, AI-powered dynamic decision support systems that integrate meteorological
data, ship hydrodynamics, and cargo characteristics in real time should be standardized on
ships. In conclusion, this study argues that a correct understanding of the evolving nature
of operational risk factors is vital for establishing a sustainable safety culture in maritime
transport. The research results offer a comprehensive, data-driven roadmap for ship operators,
classification societies, insurance companies, and international regulatory authorities.
Minimizing container losses is crucial not only for preventing billions of dollars in economic
losses but also for protecting the global marine environment and maintaining the reliability
of maritime transport in line with the "Blue Economy" goals.