Investigating the resilience of the basin of Lake Urmia in terms of precipitation and drought using climate change scenarios
Environmental Challenges, cilt.24, 2026 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 24
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.envc.2026.101564
- Dergi Adı: Environmental Challenges
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate modelling, General Circulation Model, Meteorological Droughts, Resilience, SPI
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The resilience of the basin of Lake Urmia to risks from climate change is investigated in terms of CMIP6 and CMIP5 projections and their corresponding drought indices. The modelling strategy builds upon established approaches from the authors’ recent studies, ensuring methodological consistency while testing the robustness of resilience results for the study area. The results presented here do not justify the complete desiccation of Lake Urmia during 1990–2023 as claimed by one stream of research attributing the catastrophe to climate change and/or droughts. Instead, the normality of precipitation and drought patterns under future scenarios provides diagnostic evidence that the catastrophe was triggered by failed governance and inappropriate planning. Quantitative results show precipitation in the future is likely, even to increase by as much as 10% over the basin, adding to climate resilience. This strengthens the single root-cause argument and underscores that, since the decline of the lake stemmed from policy and management decisions, its recovery is feasible should its restoration strategy be revived.