Analysing human error contribution to ship collision risk in congested waters under the evidential reasoning SPAR-H extended fault tree analysis

Uflaz E., Akyuz E., Arslan O., Gardoni P., Turan O., Aydin M.

OCEAN ENGINEERING, vol.287, pp.1-11, 2023 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 287
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115758
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, ICONDA Bibliographic, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-11
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Affiliated: Yes


Human error plays a crucial role in maritime transportation risk analysis, as a significant percentage of accidents,

including collisions, groundings, capsizing, fires, and explosions, can be attributed to human errors. However,

obtaining a dataset that quantifies human error probabilities for maritime risk analysis is challenging due to

commercial constraints. To address this issue, this paper proposes a conceptual framework that integrates

evidential reasoning (ER) and the standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability analysis (SPAR-H) method to

quantify human errors, while employing fault tree analysis (FTA) to predict risk. The specific focus of this study is

ship collision risk in congested waters, which serves as a demonstration case to showcase the proposed method

and illustrate a detailed analysis of collision risk. The findings reveal that “inadequate watchkeeping due to sole

lookout”, “improper RADAR monitoring”, and “ineffective execution of COLREG-related actions” are the most

significant human errors contributing to collision risk in congested waters. The outcomes of this research provide

valuable insights for ship owners, safety professionals, ship masters, inspectors, and researchers in the maritime

industry. The findings can assist in minimizing collision risk and improving navigational safety in congested