Pandemic-induced uncertainty and maritime terrorism: A quantile-on-quantile analysis of major maritime economies


ANSER M. K., Ali S., Nazar R., Alofaysan H.

RESEARCH IN TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS, cilt.116, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier

Özet

Pandemic-induced uncertainty reshaped global dynamics, creating critical vulnerabilities in maritime security and intensifying terrorism threats at sea. Supply chain disruptions, weakened economies, and strained international cooperation further compounded the complexity and reach of maritime terrorism, amplifying its global implications. This study investigates the asymmetric impact of pandemic-induced uncertainty on maritime terrorism in 10 selected maritime nations (the USA, China, Somalia, Singapore, Brazil, India, Greece, Nigeria, Australia, and Russia). Unlike past investigations that focused entirely on COVID-19, the present study applies a comprehensive pandemic-related uncertainty index, integrating datasets from various pandemics, including Avian Flu, Ebola, MERS, COVID-19, SARS, and others. The Quantile-on-Quantile technique is applied instead of traditional panel data methods, which often overlook country-specific contexts. This advanced instrument enables an exhaustive analysis of the asymmetric linkage between variables within individual nations. Results reveal an inverse connection between pandemic uncertainty and maritime terrorism in the USA, China, Singapore, and Australia. Meanwhile, Somalia, Brazil, India, and Nigeria show a positive association. However, mixed findings emerge in Russia and Greece, reflecting complex and varied dynamics. These findings underscore the critical need for policymakers to formulate customized policies to monitor the evolving impact of pandemic uncertainty on maritime terrorism, which varies across different quantiles.