Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
International Congress on Engineering and Life Science, Girne, Kıbrıs (Kktc), 2 - 04 Eylül 2025, ss.100-101, (Özet Bildiri)
This study investigates the projected habitat loss of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), one of the most
economically and ecologically important commercial fish species in the Black
Sea, under the influence of climate change. Due to its dominance in total catch
volumes and its ecological role as a key pelagic species, changes in anchovy
distribution may have cascading effects on the marine food web and regional
fisheries economies.
To assess these changes, an ensemble modelling approach was employed,
combining five widely used species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms:
Maxent (Maximum Entropy), GLM (Generalized Linear Models), SVM (Support Vector
Machines), Bioclim (Climate Envelope Model), and Random Forest. A total of 129
spatial occurrence records for anchovy were used, obtained through both field
surveys (2010–2023) and global biodiversity databases (GBIF). The modelling was
conducted under two future climate scenarios—SSP1-1.9 (sustainability-oriented)
and SSP5-8.5 (fossil fuel-driven development)—projected for the decades
2030–2040 and 2090–2100. Results suggest a drastic decline in suitable habitats
for anchovy, particularly along the southern Black Sea coast, which currently provides
moderately suitable areas for the species. The projections show near-complete
loss of these habitats in the long term. Such changes are expected to
negatively impact anchovy spawning grounds, migration patterns, and overall
population productivity. This could severely affect regional fisheries that
depend heavily on anchovy stocks.
In conclusion, anchovy appears highly sensitive to environmental shifts
driven by climate change. It is therefore critical to re-evaluate anthropogenic
pressures and adapt current fisheries and stock management strategies to ensure
the sustainability of anchovy populations and the ecosystems they support.