Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Using Fuzzy Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM): A Case Study Collision with Mansion in Narrow Strait

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Uflaz E., Akyüz E., Arslan Ö., Göksu S.

1st International Conference on the Stability and Safety of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Glasgow, England, 7 - 11 July 2021, pp.1-10

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Glasgow
  • Country: England
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-10
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Affiliated: Yes


The main contributor to maritime accidents and incidents is the human factor according to statistics of maritime accidents. The EMSA (European Maritime Safety Agency) has published an annual report on maritime casualties and incidents. It reveals that the 1801 accidents occurred between the 2014-2019 period, %54 of accidents are caused by human errors. (EMSA, 2020). The maritime industry has focused on high automation systems and technological devices to reduce accidents. With all technological improvements, maritime accidents have still occurred, and we have not consequential eliminate the risk of accidents. Navigation in a narrow strait has always potential risks. Thus, the bridge team, engine team, and pilot should be always aware of risks during the narrow strait passage which includes various key tasks such as; lookout, communication, emergency preparedness, etc. In an emergency, human errors are affected by many factors, management of the situation is important to prevent many disasters that may occur. The main purpose of this study is to anticipate human errors in designated roles systematically and to determine the safety controls required for ships passing through the strait. This article offers a systematic procedure for calculating operator action failure probabilities in the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). Specifically, the method is displayed with a collision case study. Therefore, the paper provides to prevent loss of life, marine pollution, and property damage in case of a possible collision of vessels passing through the strait.