Analysis of The Dynamics of The Classical Epidemic Model with Beta Distributed Random Components


KESEMEN T., MERDAN M., BEKİRYAZICI Z.

Iğdır Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol.10, no.3, pp.1956-1965, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier

Abstract

In this study, the classical epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick is analyzed with beta distributed random components. A random analysis is done for the deterministic epidemic model by transforming the parameters and initial values of the system to random variables with beta distribution. The approximations for the expectations of the model variables are compared with the deterministic results to comment on the randomness of the cases with random parameters and random initial values. Results for some numerical characteristics of these two cases are also given to investigate the accuracy of the approximations for the expected values.