Less is More: Nuclear Proliferation & Strategic (In)Stability in the Middle East
THe 83rd Annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Illinois, United States Of America, 23 - 26 April 2026, (Unpublished)
- Publication Type: Conference Paper / Unpublished
- City: Illinois
- Country: United States Of America
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
This study aims to examine whether nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would yield strategic instability by challenging conventional deterrence theory through the systematic application of the stability-instability paradox to the Middle East. While optimists expect the proliferation of nuclear weapons to enhance regional stability, this study contends that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is more likely to generate strategic instability. Using Indo-Pakistani border conflicts as a comparative case, this study employs process-tracing in order to identify causal mechanisms linking nuclear proliferation to the increasing incidence of low-intensity conflicts in certain regions. Post-1998 Indo-Pakistani conflicts reveal that the frequency of limited conflicts increases under nuclear deterrence conditions, which supports predictions of instability. Applying this framework to the Middle East, the study identifies (i) multipolar competition, (ii) weak crisis management, (iii) proxy warfare coupled with sectarian conflicts, and (iv) geographic proximity as primary factors likely to create a conducive environment for strategic instability following a nuclear proliferation cascade in the region. The study contributes to deterrence theory by specifying the scope conditions of the stability-instability paradox and challenges nuclear optimists’ expectations in weak institutional contexts like the Middle East.