Mapping Systemic Contagion of Consumer Sentiment Shocks Across National Financial Markets: A Network Analysis of Interconnected Socio-Economic Systems
SYSTEMS, vol.14, no.8, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 14 Issue: 8
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.3390/systems14080950
- Journal Name: SYSTEMS
- Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Compendex, Directory of Open Access Journals, Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
Highlights Please indicate how your work links to systems science via your contributions to systems practice, theory, and/or methodology. What are the main findings and/or the implications of the main findings?Highlights Please indicate how your work links to systems science via your contributions to systems practice, theory, and/or methodology. What are the main findings and/or the implications of the main findings?Abstract Consumer sentiment shocks rarely remain confined to their economy of origin. Adopting a systems-thinking perspective, this study treats the equity markets of thirteen advanced economies as one interconnected socio-technical system, bounded by its environment. It maps how unexpected shifts in consumer confidence propagate across it between 2015 and 2025. Rather than isolating a single channel, the analysis examines the system as a whole, where a social subsystem of household sentiment interacts with a technical subsystem of market infrastructure. Sentiment shocks are identified as the unexpected component of the OECD Composite Consumer Confidence Index, and the dependency structure linking markets is estimated through return-based networks. The analysis combines the Diebold-Y & imath;lmaz connectedness framework, Granger-causal contagion testing, network centrality measures, and panel estimation with cross-sectionally consistent standard errors. Total connectedness reaches 81.6 percent, confirming a densely integrated system in which the Euro-area core acts as the principal return transmitter; sentiment-shock contagion, once corrected for multiple testing, is sparse rather than pervasive. A small set of economies occupies structurally central positions, yet the small-sample centrality diagnostic provides no robust evidence that threshold-network centrality predicts VAR-based net spillover roles. The findings refine the standard assumption that central nodes are necessarily the main propagators of systemic disturbance and offer concrete guidance for cross-border financial monitoring. This guidance is structural rather than a real-time monitoring signal since it derives from a full sample rather than a rolling or live analysis.