The Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate and Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility of Turkey’s Fig Export to the European Union

Toktaş Y., Kızıltan A.

International Journal of Academic Value Studies, cilt.3, sa.12, ss.120-128, 2017 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

In this study, the effects of real exchange rate and real exchange rate volatility on Turkey’s fig export to the European Union were examined via bounds testing for the 1997Q1-2015Q3 period. In this study, EGARCH method was used for calculating the real effective exchange rate. However, the unit root tests of parameters were performed using ADF and PP unit root tests. According to the results of ADF and PP tests, all of the parameters were observed to be stationary at various levels. According to the Bounds test approach, it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. The findings obtained revealed that the real effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate volatility have no effect on Turkey’s fig export to the European Union in short-term, whereas this volatility has positive effects in long-term. In the long term, 1% increase in real effective exchange rate volatility increases the fig export of Turkey to the EU by 2.457%. The ECT coefficient value was calculated to be -1.095 and it was negative and statistically significant. The absolute value of ECM coefficient higher than 1 indicates that the system balances by fluctuating, and this fluctuation will ensure the balance in long-term by decreasing in each cycle.