Uncovering the determinants of ship detention duration in the Black Sea Region: a hybrid Bayesian and association rule mining perspective


Çakır E., Çelik Maşalacı B.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, cilt.1, ss.1-21, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1038/s41598-026-60757-7
  • Dergi Adı: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), BIOSIS, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Directory of Open Access Journals, Zoological Record
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-21
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines the key determinants of ship detention duration under Port State Control (PSC) within the Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) region, comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic inspection outcomes. Using 756 PSC detention cases retrieved from the Black Sea Information System, a Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayesian Network (TAN) and Association Rule Mining (ARM) were applied to identify both probabilistic dependencies and frequent co-occurrence patterns. The TAN analysis revealed that PSC Authority exerted the strongest influence on detention duration, with its impact increasing notably during the pandemic. ISM Code-related deficiencies also became more critical, while traditional technical deficiencies such as Fire Safety and Life-Saving Appliances declined in significance. ARM results further highlighted that ISM non-compliance on older Ro-Ro vessels, were closely associated with detentions longer than two days in Russian and Romanian ports. These findings underline the necessity of authority-specific, risk-based inspection strategies and improved standardisation of ISM audits to minimise operational disruptions. This study is the first duration focused analysis for the Black Sea MoU using an integrated TAN + ARM framework.