Assessment of causal mechanism of ship bunkering oil pollution

Kamal B. , Kutay Ş.

Ocean & Coastal Management, vol.215, pp.1-10, 2021 (Journal Indexed in SCI Expanded)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 215
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105939
  • Title of Journal : Ocean & Coastal Management
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-10


It is crucial to disclose the causal factors to eliminate the oil spills arising from bunkering operations. To address
this phenomenon, this paper presents a novel model for causal mechanism of oil pollution. For this purpose, this
research examines the probabilistic relationships among the causal factors which are revealed qualitatively and
quantitatively utilizing a Fuzzy-Bayes Network approach. Sensitivity and validation analyses are executed to
improve the accuracy of outcomes. Findings of the research indicate that existence of overflow, the existence of
operational causes, and crew causes appear as the major contributory factors to account for the occurrence of
pollution. Furthermore, it was found that damaged connection hose, existence of over-reliance, and bad flange
connection have the least impact to explain the occurrence of oil pollution. P&I Clubs, regulatory authorities, and
shipowners can exploit the results of this research to mitigate oil pollution risk stemming from bunkering