Assessing the Effects of Political Risks on Türkiye's Trade between 1923 and 1950


Altay İ., Bilici Ö., Dal E. P.

SOSYOEKONOMI, cilt.34, sa.69, ss.363-394, 2026 (ESCI, TRDizin)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 34 Sayı: 69
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.03.17
  • Dergi Adı: SOSYOEKONOMI
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.363-394
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper aims to investigate the political determinants of T & uuml;rkiye's exports and imports during the early years of the Republican era. Using an augmented gravity model, we analyse how political risk factors influenced T & uuml;rkiye's trade. To achieve this, we utilise annual trade data for 14 of T & uuml;rkiye's trading partners from 1923 to 1950. The findings reveal that, unlike tensions in T & uuml;rkiye's bilateral relations with its trading partners, the geopolitical risks have a significantly negative impact on T & uuml;rkiye's exports and imports. This suggests that heightened political risk stemming from global events had a detrimental effect on T & uuml;rkiye's trade during this period, whereas the tensions in its bilateral relations did not affect foreign trade, thanks to the country's focus on security and economic development.