Assessing the Effects of Political Risks on Türkiye's Trade between 1923 and 1950
SOSYOEKONOMI, vol.34, no.69, pp.363-394, 2026 (ESCI, TRDizin)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 34 Issue: 69
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.03.17
- Journal Name: SOSYOEKONOMI
- Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Page Numbers: pp.363-394
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the political determinants of T & uuml;rkiye's exports and imports during the early years of the Republican era. Using an augmented gravity model, we analyse how political risk factors influenced T & uuml;rkiye's trade. To achieve this, we utilise annual trade data for 14 of T & uuml;rkiye's trading partners from 1923 to 1950. The findings reveal that, unlike tensions in T & uuml;rkiye's bilateral relations with its trading partners, the geopolitical risks have a significantly negative impact on T & uuml;rkiye's exports and imports. This suggests that heightened political risk stemming from global events had a detrimental effect on T & uuml;rkiye's trade during this period, whereas the tensions in its bilateral relations did not affect foreign trade, thanks to the country's focus on security and economic development.